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Moving On...

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Just read an extract from Gideon Rachman's book Zero-Sum World in the FT and while the content is gloomy, he makes some powerful observations. The one below is very poignant in my mind. I always believed Bush destroyed the one emotional power of America that was compelling around the world - optimism. The culture of fear and America's relationship to the world - hard to be an optimist when you realize the world hates you - changed the psyche of America to such an extent that the America at the end of his term was completely different (deflated) to the one at the beginning. 

Rachman's observation here highlights the enormity of the challenge ahead and why Obama hasn't been able to bring that optimism back. Many would suggest that this paragraph contradicts what I'm arguing above. You could say that it suggests world events dulled that optimism. I agree you can argue that but America of the past never let that stuff get in the way of their unbridled optimism. Great depression, war, Pearl Harbor, riots, racial hatred... The list goes on but Americans managed to move on and see the opportunities ahead.

Interestingly Rachman's extract talks about how the world dealt with these situations in the past - turning to radical new ideologies like Communism. Makes me wonder about the Tea Party movement. There was a deep level of intelligence behind Communism and of course idealism. Maybe the Tea Party movement is a reverse psychology - using stupid as the core strength of thinking and in place of idealism is a continual stoking of the fear that Bush injected in to the American psyche.  

By the time Barack Obama took office, each of the five ideas that had underpinned American self-confidence during the Age of Optimism had taken a battering. The faith in the onward march of freedom had been shaken by the difficulties of exporting democracy to Iraq and Afghanistan, and by the rising confidence of authoritarian China. The belief in the power of free markets took a terrible blow with the economic and financial crisis of 2008. The technological revolution no longer seemed the magical cure-all that it had promised to be, as problems as diverse as climate change and the mechanics of military occupation proved impervious to a technological fix. The theory of the “democratic peace” looked less persuasive, as Russia flexed its military muscles, almost over-running democratic Georgia in August 2008 and China became more assertive in territorial disputes with Japan and India. Finally, the belief in the unstoppable nature of American power looked much shakier with US troops bogged down in Afghanistan and Iraq, and the American economy reeling.

Read the whole extract here http://bit.ly/9IDIPz

Filed under  //  culture   current affairs   politics  
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Calming Down

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I want to pick up on a change of mood abroad towards Obama that seems to have grown over the last couple of weeks.

Indonesians have demanded that the Government remove a statue of Obama from their National Park in Jakarta - it's been moved to a school. The Middle East embraced Obama with open arms when he gave his rousing speech in Cairo and now they accuse him of empty promises. And China is now on the attack after giving him a positive welcome in Beijing.

Has Obama let them all down? I doubt any country or region of the world would suggest this accept perhaps the Middle East. Most would have to admit that they got caught up in the euphoria that we all felt for Obama on his election. What's happening now is just a correcting of hopes and aspirations.

In all honestly, Obama could never live up to the euphoria that surrounded him. However, I think what's happening highlights the need for Obama to make choices and be selective in his moves/arguments/actions going forward. He needs to correct his course.

I heard a great quote once that I use often - Strategy is all about Sacrifice. It's true that there's a lot on Obama's plate but success will come with being selective - he will need to choose what really will make a difference in coming years.

Perhaps the advice that Clare Boothe Luce offered to JFK in 1962 should be mentioned to Obama. She said "A great man is one sentence." Abraham Lincoln's was "He preserved the union and freed the salves." Franklin Roosevelt's was "He lifted us out of a great depression and helped us win a world war."

What will Obama's be "America's first black President."? That's not enough in my book.

Filed under  //  politics  
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Distractions

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Li Keqiang, the executive vice-premier of China and poised to be the next premier of China in 2012

I've noticed a lot of press recently on China. Criticisms of its export-led model. Lack of investment in its own social welfare. And also that hacking issue that Google took up, which led to a political onslaught by Hilary Clinton. Any questions on the power of Google should be answered there. While the typical areas of unrest between the US and China are back on the table - Taiwan, Tibet and Human Rights - most of the unrest is focused on economic disparity and responsibility.

There are several sensationalist articles on this subject but I share two good articles that I thought were well thought through from IHT (NYTImes Euro edition) http://nyti.ms/bIzOqN and http://nyti.ms/cPKS5X.

One particular quote I found interesting from one of the articles said "The major concern is not China getting too big for its boots — at least in the short term — but a growing sense of American frustration that its boots are no longer as big as they were or should be, together with an unwillingness or refusal to understand China on anything other than American terms. China must not be confused in the American mind with a Soviet Union Mark 2. It is a far more formidable adversary whose ultimate strength is not its military hardware but its economic prowess, and whose diplomatic weapon is not saber rattling but great patience."

I also found an interesting article in the FT about China's Li Keqiang at Davos http://bit.ly/9NCP39 (Look for the article - Keeping its Distance)

I thought these two quotes from that article were interesting by Yan Xeutong, director of the Institute of International Studies at Tsinghua University, “In the last 30 years, Chinese leaders have firmly believed China is a developing country, Davos is for rich countries.”  Of Beijing’s continuing reticence, in spite of China’s growing wealth, he adds: “The rest of the world regards China as a superpower. But we say: ‘No. This is a trap to exhaust our limited resources.’”

What worries me about this focus on China's approach to the economy, which is being praised by even the likes of George Soros, is that it's a distraction from a more important debate about China's responsibility to the world's welfare. There's no doubt that China's patience, which is part of their cultural DNA, has led to a very positive response to the economic crisis - it hardly effected them. However, the question of whether they are in a position today to help the world, including the welfare of their own citizens, seems to me to be a mute argument. They are claiming a poorer status than other members of the Davos elite but if you look at their economic performance, this just does not seem to add up - certainly in the long term. 

Let's hope in the coming years China will start to play a more important role in the world's welfare even if in truth this will be very uncomfortable for the US.

Filed under  //  global   politics  
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Obama should have blamed Bush

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With a year in office completed there have been plenty of interesting articles on Obama.

Recently I've been worried about his position and I'm starting to feel like we have another President Carter. There's too much reliance on focus groups (Captured in this very good article in NYMag http://bit.ly/7czktI). There's too much desire to be loved by the nation. There's little in the way of leadership decision making. I want Obama to be the best President America has had but I'm not feeling it right now.

I have picked some articles here that I think do a good job of covering this topic but I want to focus on one that I thought was brilliant and insightful about positioning.

It's an article from the UK Times and talks about how Obama focused his blame on the Banks and not on the Republicans thereby allowing the Republicans to shake themselves off and start to come back as a solid challenger to Obama. Check out the article if for no other reason than to learn how important positioning is in any endeavor. http://bit.ly/8FIBwR

The Economist's article The Man Who fell to Earth http://bit.ly/8fQmMY does a good job of highlighting the tension between knowing what needs fixing but not knowing how to fix it. "Diagnosing what is going wrong is easier than figuring out how to fix it, because voters’ concerns are contradictory." The point that resonates for me in this article is this point about voters being contradictory. If you rely on their direction through focus groups, it makes sense based on this observation that you will get nowhere. You have to lead.

This week's NYMag article talks about the importance of his State of the Union speech this evening in how he pitches the speech. It can no longer be just about eloquence, passion and conviction. There has to be a dose of reality in his speech "They will be studying him to see if he grasps the magnitude of his and his party's peril, and trying to discern what he intends to do about it." http://bit.ly/4wdJy3

Finally, the February issue of Monocle magazine sheds a positive light on his last year saying that "Barack Obama may not yet have brought about as much change as promised, but he himself has certainly changed. He has learnt that he will have to fight dirty to get things done – and this means his first year in office can be deemed a success."

Let's hope so and let's hope he starts to show leadership in action not just leadership in words.

Filed under  //  obama   politics  
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Gorbachev's Endgame

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via themoscowtimes.com

With all the talk on the Afghanistan war, I always feel like the press here in the US is too flippant in its analysis of the differences today versus 20+ years ago when Russia was fighting the same war.

This article in the Moscow Times does a really good job of putting things in perspective.

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/article/obama-tests-soviets-afghan-endgame...

Filed under  //  politics   russia  
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